As the USMCA approaches its first joint review, the trade community is preparing for a pivotal renegotiation — not a rubber stamp. Altana's expert survey of 62 senior trade professionals reveals broad consensus: the agreement will survive, but only with significant amendments addressing Chinese supply chain influence, tighter enforcement mechanisms, and a new paradigm built on component-level visibility. The findings point to an era where knowing what's in a product matters as much as knowing where it ships from.
Before looking ahead to the joint review, experts assessed USMCA's track record across seven core objectives. The verdict: strongest on digital trade modernization and trade volume growth, but weaker on reducing dependence on non-North American inputs and curbing transshipment — precisely the areas now dominating the review agenda.
The effectiveness gap tells the story of the review itself. Where USMCA scores highest — modernizing digital trade (89% effective) and increasing trade volumes (94%) — there is less urgency for change. Where it scores lowest — reducing dependence on non-North American inputs (68%) and addressing transshipment (73%) — the pressure for reform is most intense. This pattern directly explains why China-related enforcement and supply chain visibility have risen to the top of the negotiation agenda.
Nearly two-thirds of trade leaders surveyed expect the USMCA joint review to result in conditional renewal with substantial amendments — not a straightforward extension. This signals an industry bracing for meaningful renegotiation of core provisions around rules of origin, China policy, and enforcement.
While 63% agree on conditional renewal, the confidence picture is split — 52% are very confident and 44% only somewhat confident, reflecting the inherent unpredictability of this review. Most (74%) expect resolution by the end of 2026, suggesting the industry is preparing for a compressed but intense negotiation cycle.
While headlines focus on immediate disputes like automotive rules or energy, the broader risk is that the rolling review process discourages the multi-decade capital commitments required for true North American nearshoring.
When asked to rate the importance of ten negotiation issues, addressing Chinese transshipment and non-transformation through Mexico and Canada emerged as the highest-priority "Critical" issue. Nearly 57% of respondents rated it critical — far outpacing any other single issue. Combined with 89% agreement that transshipment is a "significant and growing problem," China's supply chain influence dominates the review agenda.
The China question isn't an abstract policy debate — it's the central organizing issue of the review. With 86% of respondents agreeing that Chinese FDI in Mexico poses a national security risk, and electronics and semiconductors (66%) plus automotive (56%) identified as the most vulnerable sectors, trade leaders see a systemic challenge that the current USMCA framework was not designed to address. Notably, 69% believe the U.S. will successfully compel Mexico and Canada to adopt aligned China restrictions — but that still leaves significant skepticism about trilateral alignment.
The most underreported issue is Mexico's role as a conduit for Chinese goods and investment to circumvent U.S. tariffs.
The hidden vulnerability of North American supply chains to Chinese capital and intermediate goods — while policy focuses on final assembly, the real risk is deeper in the supply chain.
A striking 87% of trade leaders agree that component-level supply chain visibility — knowing what's in a product, not just where it ships from — will become the dominant enforcement paradigm in trade agreements. This represents a fundamental shift from documentation-based compliance to data-driven transparency.
The enforcement gap is real: while 73% rate USMCA somewhat or very effective at addressing transshipment, 87% simultaneously agree that current rules of origin are insufficient to prevent circumvention. The reconciliation is clear — the framework has value but needs a new enforcement layer. With 58% rating AI and advanced technology as "Very Important" to the review outcome, the industry sees technology-enabled visibility as the bridge between today's documentation-based system and tomorrow's component-level reality.
Supply chain traceability and enforcement gaps are being overlooked. Current discussions emphasize rules of origin and China restrictions, but the lack of component-level visibility across industries leaves loopholes for circumvention.
Many discussions focus on thresholds and tariffs, but few address how companies can realistically verify and trace component origins at the subassembly level. Without stronger enforcement mechanisms and digital traceability, the rules themselves are just words on paper.
On the politically charged question of whether to raise regional value content (RVC) thresholds, trade leaders send a nuanced message: enforce what we have before piling on new requirements. 82% agree that enforcement of existing rules matters more than raising thresholds, even as 87% acknowledge higher thresholds could reduce non-North American content.
The data paints a picture of a trade community that wants evolution, not revolution. While 76% agree that U.S.-specific content requirements would undermine the FTA principle, and 76% believe higher thresholds could cause firms to forgo USMCA preferences entirely, 87% favor gradual phase-in tariffs over abrupt changes. Looking ahead, 76% expect North American integration to increase over the next decade — with 45% expecting moderate strengthening and 31% seeing movement toward a customs union. The message is clear: strengthen the framework through better enforcement and smarter technology, not blunt-force threshold increases.
The 2026 USMCA review is being redefined by non trade issues like border security, fentanyl trafficking, and Mexico's judicial reforms, which the U.S. is now using as direct leverage for market access. Simultaneously, a quiet but aggressive tightening of rules of origin is transforming the pact into a geopolitical fortress.
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Learn More at altana.aiThis survey was conducted as part of Altana's Future of Trade Forum series in Spring 2026. Respondents were screened for professional involvement in USMCA or North American trade operations and familiarity with the 2026 joint review process. The conversational survey format combined structured quantitative questions with open-ended qualitative prompts to capture both measurable consensus and nuanced expert perspectives.
Percentages are calculated based on valid responses per question. Some questions allowed multiple selections, so totals may exceed 100%. Figures are rounded to the nearest whole percentage point. Survey conducted by Gather on behalf of Altana, Spring 2026.